Does South Africa stay on the AGOA list for 2027?

This market has closed. Here is where the country landed.

What the world believes

NO100%
YES0%

How this resolves

Closes: 23:59 SAST on 31 October 2026
Resolves: When the US government publishes its final decision establishing South Africa’s AGOA eligibility for the start of 2027.
Source: An official presidential proclamation, Federal Register publication or USTR announcement establishing 2027 eligibility.
Rules: Resolves YES if the official decision retains South Africa as an eligible AGOA beneficiary country for the start of 2027. Resolves NO if the official decision excludes South Africa or fully suspends its country-level eligibility for the start of 2027. The decision must explicitly establish South Africa’s status, or provide an authoritative, complete list of eligible countries for 2027. Omission from a partial announcement does not establish exclusion. Proposals, recommendations, political statements and notices of ongoing review do not qualify as final decisions. Product-specific restrictions do not count as country-level exclusion.
If the source is down: Use an archived official publication or at least two independent major news reports quoting the final official decision and clearly establishing South Africa’s status.
If plans change: If no qualifying decision is published by 31 December 2026, resolve using South Africa’s legally operative eligibility at 00:00 US Eastern Time on 1 January 2027. Continued eligibility under an existing designation counts as YES; country-level exclusion or full suspension counts as NO. Predictions remain closed while settlement is pending. If AGOA ends programme-wide before the assessment time, or South Africa’s status remains unverifiable by 7 January 2027, the market is void.

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